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Prediction for CME (2024-05-01T06:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-05-01T06:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/30362/-1
CME Note: Wide bulb-like CME with a clear bulk and a wider shock. Its source is an eruption starting after 2024-05-01T05:50Z seen in AIA 304 and 193 as a large size dimming centered around ~S20W65, an opening of field lines seen in AIA 193/171 to the south of AR 3654. There might be an EUV wave with this eruption but it is not easily discernible in AIA 193: there is an isolated less deep dimming around S20W35 in AIA 193 and especially AIA 335 but it is unclear whether this a separate sympathetic eruption. No clear arrival signature has been found in the solar wind data.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-05-03T17:19Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2024-05-01 10:50
 - Time at C2: 2024-05-01 06:36
 - Radial speed: 861.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 50 deg
 - Eruption location: N46E22
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 664.30 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2024-05-03 17:19 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.72 hours)
Lead Time: 45.27 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2024-05-01T20:03Z
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